capital is destructive insofar as new knowledge, new ideas, new technology obliterate the ways of the past

The price of crude oil can really go higher and higher I do not think there is really a limit on how high it can go I predict it will eventually go to $200

Just published an interview here with Mr Phil Flynn we talk about the very distressing situation we find ourselves in which is that kooks are making energy policy

The Federal Reserve Board is overall pretty incompetent but it does not really matter because the Ashkenazi debt business is what drives economic policy and Fed policy also interest rates

It is pretty obvious interest rates cannot go up much because if they do they will bankrupt the US govt which has a gargantuan transfer payments program

Ashkenazi Jew Alan Greenspan did like me and he was impressed with me but I do not really think he was very smart just another Jewish swindler in Washington

Annual debt service cost of US govt is now about 15-16% of US govt hard cash revenue so the Ashkenazi Jewish parasite does not have much time left before their host implodes

Just interviewed for the 4th time my friend Ms Gail Tverberg I explained to her why there was military incursion into Ukraine

In the mid 1990s I came up with the concept of "development dictatorship" and the Chinese govt has brilliantly carried out my conceptual model

I talked to a senior official of the IMF a week ago, he told me I would not be able to interview Kristalina Georgieva the managing director that's unfortunate she is scared also probably incompetent

Tomorrow I interview a senior European diplomat in Washington I think it should be interesting possibly also pretty freaky for Ashkenazi Jews in Washington

I will call up again my friend David B Collum, he 's at Cornell University....chemistry, he said he is close to aligning with me on this war going on in Ukraine

Ashkenazi Jews do not like the 1st Amendment they want to restrict speech they do not approve of

The Christian faith and its tolerance and forgiveness can only be taken so far it will collapse then the force of nature takes over

Tension is building again and I realized last night another world war is inevitable probably within 10 years

Actually the archives do reveal this but historians cannot discuss the truth you will only see falsehoods and distortion

The Germans, mostly in Bavaria, determined they would no longer tolerate Ashkenazim, their anti-Christian and anti-social behavior

I realized last night WWII was mostly about the Jews, not only the Pale of Settlement but also Jews in Western Europe

Asia at the Crossroads: The World's New Economic Locomotive of the 21st Century [August 1996]

Apr 07, 2022

The past several centuries have not been terribly easy for the peoples of Asia. Before the Second World War the Asians were either ignored, or colonized, by westerners who -- confident of their superiority over the yellow races -- tried to bring economic development and Christianity to the continent. Colonization was, of course, a European cover for a more invidious agenda. Westerners plundered Asian natural resources and attempted to build markets for their manufactures. Gunboat diplomacy and opium combined with an army of spies and agent provocateurs to spread anarchy and mayhem. Genocide, a word now fashionable, was widespread. It was certainly not a pretty sight: the Japanese, with a fierce militarism in their past, also got in on the action.

Yet Asia has recovered completely, and is now making breathtaking progress. The continent is no longer being ignored. I saw this firsthand after recently completing a 15-month travel, most of which was overland on public transport. I slowly and methodically inspected the continent's prospects for success in the next century, and I have come away with an overwhelming sense of foreboding for the United States. America's preeminence, I am afraid, will disappear in the 21st century, and Asian nations, led by the economic association of Japan, China, and India, will be largely responsible for this upheaval.

Lee Quan Yew, the former prime minister of Singapore, has argued just this, and I now find his words very persuasive. It is not a very popular argument in the West for a simple reason: democracy, or democracy as the West practices it, is not looked upon in Asia as a sound foundation for a dynamic economy. On the contrary, they view it as a handicap, or a degenerative disease, which only serves to burden a modern economy with unnecessary costs and regulations. My journey across Asia, which brought me to every nation except Taiwan and Cambodia, disabused me of my illusions about democracy.

Heavy taxes, transfer payments and welfarism, society teeming with unscrupulous lawyers, pervasive criminality justified by "personal liberties," an entertainment industry posing as a free press -- these do nothing constructive for an economy. Instead, they weigh it down, often much more than expected or wanted, and dissuade the creative, innovative and energetic from making full contributions to the life of the economy. Authoritarian government may be a great asset for Asians -- and the Asians may fully appreciate this -- but it does not tell the whole story of their remarkable success.

Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger believed that they did wonderful things for the world when they opened China in the early 1970s. It is now clear that this could not be farther from the truth. Of course, from their perspective, it was logical at the time to engage China in a play against the Soviet Union. Brezhnev told Nixon, "what makes us really anxious are those billion Chinese beyond our eastern borders." But the cold warriors could not foresee an end to the cold war. Balance of power in international politics was what Nixon and Kissinger thought they were achieving. In fact, by telling Mao and his followers that China needed capital not civil war (often the result of communism) these men were inviting the destruction of the United States. Mao's genius is now emerging: unify China at any cost, then rebuild the nation and embrace the world's capitalists.

Opening up China did little to end the cold war, but it has given other Asians, notably Japan, a natural -- and nearly infinite --- market for its services and capital goods. Japan produces much of the world's value-added goods, goods which the Chinese and indeed all of Asia desperately need. Japan's proximity to China and India makes it distinctly possible that capitalists around the globe will witness one of the most earthshaking events in the history of capitalism: the world's banker and leading exporter of capital goods, Japan, joins with the world's most populous nations, and creates a booming Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere. And, most likely, warfare will not cause an abortion of this project.

A lethal combination of Asian assets -- plentiful natural resources and energy, geography, authoritarian government, immense population (which continues to grow rapidly), and culture -- can explain the continent's success. But perhaps the two most important assets are very recent developments: the end of the cold war, which has brought peace to the region and its borders; and the ever increasing power of the computer chip, which has brought knowledge to otherwise backward and isolated corners of a vast continent.

Overland transport is now becoming efficient, due to remarkable improvements in technology and the end of the cold war. National rivalries are really no longer being inflamed by the world's two leading imperial powers, the United States and Russia. Sea transport, the world's chief mode of trade in the 20th century, is going to face stiff competition from overland transport in the 21st. The infrastructure of Asia is being rapidly but carefully built, and when it is completed, there will be an explosion of trade. Ideas, goods and services, and people will move around with an increasing volume and efficiency.

The ancient Silk Route (which I followed) will undoubtedly be revived. Intercontinental trade between Europe and Asia will gradually come to make up a large proportion of world trade. In ancient times, new ideas and inventions typically moved west from China to Europe, but only after Arabs perfected them. In the 21st century it will perhaps be understood that nature created an awesome power by depositing the majority of the world's underground fossil fuels in the Near East and Central Asia. The Arabs and Central Asians, classic middlemen, already seem to understand this, and they are negotiating with the United States and Russia and with lesser regional powers for a larger share of the world's wealth. They do not appear to hesitate to use the best of warfare's strategies -- terror and guerrilla operations. Their confidence and newfound strength bolster the view that they know precisely where they stand and what they are doing. They are indeed impressive.

It is a testament to Asia's strength and resolve that economic development has been enthusiastically embraced while unfamiliar religious institutions have been rejected and foreign powers repelled. But this has not been achieved without a price, and a very dear one at that. Most Asian societies were ripped apart, notably the Chinese nation, and the effects of this destruction are still felt on the continent of Asia.

Historians in the West have made it a cliche to say that during the Middle Ages in Europe the achievements of the peoples of the Near East and Far East were the most impressive in the world. But it is no doubt true. Chinese invented the compass, gunpowder, printing, paper and the civil-service-examination (based on the Chinese classics). The prosecution of war -- a deeply cerebral human activity -- as well as the study of warfare was perfected by the Chinese. Most of these stunning inventions eventually made their way to Europe, but via the Arabs.

China is now well on its way to reclaiming its past glory. Major Chinese cities are boomtowns, with construction everywhere in sight. The masses of Chinese are still poor, but they are applying themselves like never before in building their nation. This can be done because the unification of the Chinese people has been accomplished, with the exception of the renegade province of Taiwan. There are no more menacing threats from foreigners. Instead, in Washington DC some people are talking nervously of China as a threat -- both an economic and military threat. Hong Kong will be returned in the summer of 1997 and Macau in 1999. This unification has come with a heavy price as well. There are many ways to explain Chinese communism, but there is one that I find very persuasive: rebuilding China, and reclaiming its borders as well as its resources, required strong leadership and a ruthless fight against enemies inside and out. Bloodletting and dictatorship grew to be the critical fixture of life in China since World War II.

But apart from violence in the name of self-defense, Asians have, in the past 50 years, done what any intelligent people do in the late 20th century: work very hard, save their small earnings to then convert into capital -- now fully recognized as the indispensable driver of economic development. Long hours are logged in, and with impressive focus and concentration, in order to achieve independence and restore self-esteem. Education is highly valued. Foreign capital is welcome. Most important, authoritarian government is maintained, though not without some unpleasant consequences, to give economic development a sound direction and to keep labor costs low. Personal freedoms are wisely restricted; consumption is discouraged and production, with exports bringing in the hard cash, strongly emphasized. Adam Smith would not always approve of the strategy, but the accomplishments are awesome.

My thesis can be simply put. Intra-Asian trade and investment, made possible now that the continent has a substantial per capita GDP, is allowing large investments in the upgrading of infrastructure. Exports, once targeted at the Western economies, are now turning more towards the Asian continent. International economists may believe that the past 20 years of 10% a year economic growth cannot be repeated, that these Asian tigers or powerhouses are bound to slow and develop into more mature economies. But I believe the opposite will be the case: the economic growth during the next 20 years in Asia will far exceed expectations and perhaps even make new records. The strong yen -- the key ingredient -- is pleading to be invested in its backyard.

My long travel began in Istanbul, the western gateway to the Orient. It ended at the base camp of Mt. Annapurna in the Himalayas, the foot of one of the highest mountains in the world. This is a fitting way to end an epic travel on a continent which is exploding with activity and creativity. It was not too long ago that Istanbul was the seat of the Orient's assault on Western Civilization. The assault came very close to succeeding. Eurasia is indeed the geographical pivot and "heartland" of history. With the nations of Asia turning towards each other for profit and capital Asia can once again challenge the West. The exhilaration of standing amongst the highest mountains in the world was too much for me: I cannot wait to return and be witness to the turning point for Asia.

Renaissance is not the exclusive property of the West. The scarcity of oxygen at 4200 meters (the elevation of Mt. Annapurna's base camp) forces the brain to think clearly: from the Himalayas one can look down on the world's new economic locomotive. Skeptics must remember that this is a world perpetually in flux, that this is a new century and a new start for two-thirds of the world's people.